Trump says ‘too early’ to name J.D. Vance as successor.

Perhaps he now realizes that he may have bypassed more capable people to succeed him than Vance.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5136930-trump-vance-successor/

In a way, that’s a lot like John Kerry, who endorsed Barack Obama in January 2008 even though the person who would have been president at that moment (John Edwards) had something happened to a “President” Kerry was still vying for the Democratic presidential nomination and only 7 days after the Iowa caucus.

I am strongly of the opinion that Kerry knew (or at the very least highly suspected) that the married Edwards with four children was a philanderer while still married to his cancer-stricken wife Elizabeth and that’s what played the key role in his endorsement of Obama. (Yes, I know he had picked Obama to give the keynote speech at the 2004 convention.)

But keep in mind that heading into the New Hampshire primary it was either going to be the front-runner Hillary Clinton, Obama or Edwards. The ingrate Bill Richardson had dropped out on January 9. Joe Biden had dropped out on January 3, after a poor showing in Iowa (he wouldn’t endorse Obama until June 22, when Obama had already accumulated enough deleates to secure the nomination.

The delegate count from Iowa was Obama 16, Clinton 15, Edwards 14.

The was no real political rationale for Edwards dropping out other than he knew that news of his affair would break (he dropped out on January 30th, making it a two-horse race).

Before the caucuses, the Des Moines Register reported that during a poll of 800 likely Democratic caucus goers from December 27 to December 30, 2007, the candidates had the following results:

Barack Obama – 32%
Hillary Clinton – 25%
John Edwards – 24%
Bill Richardson – 6%
Joe Biden – 4%
Christopher Dodd – 2%
Dennis Kucinich – 1%
Mike Gravel – 0%
Not sure/Uncommitted – 6%

The final popular vote was:

Barack Obama – 37.6%
John Edwards – 29.7%
Hillary Clinton – 29.4%

Keep in mind that caucus rules state that if a candidate received less than 15 percent of the caucus goers’ votes at a given caucus site, then the supporters of that non-viable candidate had 30 minutes to either join a viable candidate’s group, join another non-viable candidate’s group to make the candidate viable, join an uncommitted group, or choose not to be counted as a voter. That is why Obama, Clinton and Edwards’ vote numbers are higher than the Register’s polling numbers.

I also strongly believe that the MSM held back on going after Edwards because they were waiting for a more opportune moment. The National Enquirer had already broke the story in December 2007.

Average New Hampshire primary polling during the period of January 5 to January 7, 2008 by Real Clear Politics indicated Obama’s support at 38.3%, Clinton at 30.0%, Edwards at 18.3%, and Richardson at 5.7%. These results indicated an 8.3% lead for Obama.

Clinton would win with 39.1%, Obama 36.5% and Edwards at 16.9%. Delegates awarded after the January 8th primary were 9 each for Clinton and Obama, 4 for Edwards.

Edwards, inexplicably did poor in the Nevada caucus (January 19th) and the South Carolina (January 26th) primary. On January 30, 2008, Edwards announced that he was suspending his campaign for the Presidency. Edwards’ mistress, his former videographer Rielle Hunter, gave birth to Frances Quinn Hunter on February 27th. On May 14, 2008, Edwards endorsed Barack Obama at a campaign event in Grand Rapids, Michigan. On August 8th, Edwards admits to having had an affair with Hunter. He denied paternity of her baby but finally admitted that, too, but not until 2010.

It’s a shame what Edwards did to himself and outrageous what he did to Elizabeth. As for politics, he really did have a genuine populist appeal in 2004 and, at that point, I do think he would have made a better general election candidate than Kerry. Which is why he got my primary vote that year. My strong preference would have been House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, but he had dropped out after Howard Dean and Gephardt destroyed each other in an ad war.

Now, to be clear, I am not suggesting Vance is having an affair.

I, however, am suggesting that Trump has some yet unannounced reasons why he might favor someone other than Vance in 2028. Donald Jr. perhaps.

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